Why is college enrollment declining?

One factor behind falling college enrollment is a shrinking U.S. birth rate. Often referred to as the "enrollment cliff," the college-aged population will decline in 2025, likely meaning fewer students. Also, 2020's COVID-19 pandemic led to a steep decline in undergraduate enrollment — but not graduate enrollment. In 2024, pandemic-related college enrollment decline began to rebound.

Is college becoming less popular?

Outside of the pandemic, it's hard to say that college is becoming less popular. When you look at the college enrollment rate among 18-24-year olds, roughly the same percentage enrolled in college in 2020 as they did 10 years prior. Instead, today's enrollment decline is likely the result of fewer traditionally-aged students due to lower birth rates following economic recessions. College definitely isn't becoming more popular, however. After a gradual increase over the decades, the college enrollment rate has basically stopped growing. Time will tell how the college enrollment rate will change after the enrollment cliff.

U.S. College Enrollment Decline Statistics

Updated on March 13, 2025

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• Fact-checked by Marley Rose

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College enrollment peaked around 2010, and it may be headed for a steep decline. Learn more about college enrollment trends and the factors impacting enrollment.

Silhouette of a college graduate in a cap and gown climbing up a set of steps on a university campus.

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Data Summary

Undergraduate student enrollment increased from 1970-2010, peaking at around 18 million students.^[1]
But between 2010 and 2022, undergraduate enrollment fell by almost 15%.^{Note Reference [1]}
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the college enrollment decline for undergraduates, but not graduate students.^[2]
In fall 2024, undergraduate enrollment rates increased for the first time since before the pandemic.^{Note Reference [2]}
Experts predict a steep enrollment decline in 2025, due to a shrinking college-aged population.

In 2025, colleges and universities are bracing for a steep drop in young adults applying to their programs. Why? Due to declining birth rates after the 2007 recession, there are simply fewer 18-year-olds. It’s an event experts are calling the “enrollment cliff.”

However, undergraduate student enrollment has actually been trending downward since 2010. This report uncovers long-term enrollment patterns and explores some of the causes behind the college enrollment decline.

College Enrollment Decline: 1980s-2020s

After increasing for decades, undergraduate college enrollment peaked in 2010 at around 18.1 million students, according to data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES).^{Note Reference [1]} From there, it declined steadily. In fall 2022, about 15.4 million students were enrolled in college.

Here are a few more college enrollment decline statistics to consider:

Between 1985 and 2010, college enrollment increased at an average rate of 2.2% a year.
From 2012-2022, enrollment decreased at an average rate of 1.4% a year.
In 2022, college enrollment was 14.8% below peak enrollment in 2010.

Explore all college enrollment statistics

What’s Causing the College Enrollment Decline?

To discover what’s causing the college enrollment decline, it helps to look at historical trends in the economy and society leading up to the dip. Following an economic recession in the early 1990s, the U.S. birth rate fell.^{Note Reference [3]} This could explain a college enrollment decline about 18 years later.

The birth rate dropped again during the 2007-2009 recession. For this reason, experts predict another enrollment drop — or “cliff” — after 2025.

It’s important to remember that the enrollment cliff primarily impacts traditionally-aged undergraduate enrollment. But today, more older learners are enrolling in educational programs, thanks in part to the access and flexibility provided by online learning.

Older learners, nontraditional students, and graduate students could be key to helping colleges keep their enrollment stable.

Undergraduate Enrollment Declined at Two-Year and For-Profit Colleges

Over the past 30 years, two-year colleges and for-profit colleges and universities mainly drove declines in undergraduate enrollment. Enrollment increased at four-year public and nonprofit schools.^{Note Reference [1]}

Two-year public colleges lost 38% of their enrollment between 2010 and 2022.
Two-year private for-profit colleges lost about 59% of their enrollment in the same period.
Four-year private for-profit colleges lost about 55% of their enrollment.
Enrollment grew at four-year public colleges (by 15%) and four-year nonprofit colleges (by 3.5%).

Two-year private schools appear in a separate graph due to their lower enrollment numbers.

Pandemic College Enrollment Decline and Rebound: 2019-2024

The undergraduate college enrollment decline accelerated at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Public colleges — especially two-year schools — experienced the steepest declines.

International student enrollment and transfer enrollment also saw sharp declines during the pandemic.

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) found that between fall 2019 and fall 2024, undergraduate college enrollment dropped most from 2019 to 2022. It rose again for the first time in 2023, and nearly recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2024.^{Note Reference [2]}

NSCRC estimated that graduate student enrollment only fell in 2022. In general, graduate student enrollment has increased since the start of the pandemic.^{Note Reference [2]}

Fall College Enrollment, 2019-2024
Year	Undergraduate Enrollment	Graduate Enrollment
2019	16,152,005	2,961,798
2020	15,617,969	3,048,557
2021	15,093,365	3,114,071
2022	15,072,249	3,085,883
2023	15,248,077	3,102,873
2024	15,955,978	3,189,517

Source: NSCRC^{Note Reference [2]}

Learn more about the pandemic's effect on college students

College Enrollment Rate Over Time

In 2021, the percentage of all U.S. residents between 18-24 enrolled in college was 38.1%, the lowest it’s been since 2006.^[4] In 2022, the college enrollment rate was 39%, which is still low compared to the previous decade.

Additionally, the percentage of recent high school graduates enrolled in college was around the lowest it’s been in years. In 2022, 62% of high school grads enrolled in college versus 70% in 2009.^[5]

Frequently Asked Questions About the College Enrollment Decline

Today, fewer people are going to college than in the previous decade. In 2022, about 15.4 million students were enrolled in an undergraduate degree program. According to NCES data, that’s the lowest undergraduate enrollment since 2006.^{Note Reference [1]}

However, more people go to college today than in the early 2000s and the decades before that. In 2022, more than twice as many people went to college as in 1970.^{Note Reference [1]}